Goal 14:Achieve new sources of energy using fusion, solar power or other breakthrough technologies.ObstaclesMany of the issues already discussed are implicit attempts to deal with the looming energy issues. Global effects are already being noticed as a result of the increased use of energy by mankind. The goals all discussed so far have been aimed towards lowering the dependence on energy. It is now time to address the other side of the problem, the energy supply.Changing the balance of energy supply from fossil fuels has had a long history of vigorous and sometimes violent resistance. Too many organizations and even societies depend upon the current energy policies to want to change. These objections can be overcome, at least in some cases, by inviting participation in the development of new energy technologies. Certainly fossil fuel energy companies are far-seeing enough to know that they will need to develop new business plans if they are to remain viable. Proper policies can get them to participate in new activities. Countries which derive a large amount of their foreign exchange from fossil fuels need to be given time to develop other economic activities, perhaps by inducements from global organizations such as The World Bank. If fossilized material ceases to be wasted as fuel it can continue as a profitable source for chemical feed stocks for a much longer period. ImplementationMost of the conflict in society seems ultimately to be based upon control of raw materials and land. Lots of other reasons are offered to sway the populace to support war, but beneath it all is a desire for more, or a more secure source of supply. In the past fifty years this has meant access to oil and gas. As supplies become scarcer the rewards of war become greater when the objectives are met. So the way to best reduce discord in the world is to find replacements for much of oil and gas as quickly as possible. The detailed analysis that have been done currently point to only two viable options: coal and nuclear. Coal is expected to last two to four hundred years and nuclear up to 100. Both these options have very high environmental costs, however.What is required is a "Manhattan Project" type of effort to solve the energy problem. The only technology which has not been properly explored is controlled fusion. The US funding for basic fusion research is on the order of $300 million per year. Compare this with the $146 million users spent just on cell phone ring-tones. Obviously the US can afford to spend much more on research than is now being done. Also note the impact that rising oil prices are having on inflation and balance of trade in the developed world. As commodities become more expensive the economic impact is multiplied. There is no guarantee that controlled fusion can be made to work, or made to work economically, but without undertaking the program at a realistic level we limit our options. As with other large scale implementation projects already discussed, the management is best done by a government-directed program which accepts bids from those entities best able to do the work. Other programs, especially solar power, must also be funded at the same time. One area that is also neglected is superconductivity. With the separation of the generation and transmission functions of electric power there has been an increase in the long distance transmission of electric power. While the techniques have been improved there is still a loss of 10-15% just due to energy transport issues. Creation of viable superconducting power transmission would eliminate these problems and allow generation to be sited where it has the least adverse environmental impact. I recommend a world-wide effort to harness fusion. I suggest a level of funding at about $300 billion per year. This cost would be spread over all the participating nations. Even if the US were to fund the whole enterprise the impact would be minimal. Soft drinks, alone are a multi-billion dollar expense. The war is Iraq has already cost one trillion dollars. So the world can afford the research expense. There have been several interesting developments over the past few years with desktop fusion using novel techniques like sono-cavitation to create the high densities needed initiate fusion. Even if 99% of these approaches fail, the world still comes out ahead. We only need one winner. Other approaches such as solar, wind and other renewable ideas are discussed frequently, so I won't repeat the arguments for expansion in these areas. |