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Taking Responsibility (Part 1)
When our elected governments and institutions do the things
we asked of them
We make implicit or explicit demands upon our institutions and we
must follow them to their origins. A society in denial can not
properly function in a competitive world. Here are some examples
of current concern:
Foreign Outsourcing
Follow this line of argument.
- Companies out source to lower
costs.
- In a Capitalist system companies must do whatever they can to
remain competitive with others in their industry. This means
lowering material-, labor- and financing-costs, among others.
Those that fail to compete lose business and eventually fail.
It is customary to speak of a "market economy" these days, but
nothing has changed in most western countries over the past two
hundred years. The "market" is where goods are traded, but the
economic organization of firms is still primarily private
enterprise Capitalism.
Lower costs lead to higher profits.
- Assuming that other firms have the same basic structure then
lowering costs will increase the "bottom line", that is profits.
In a truly competitive climate it is hard for single company to
raise prices, it will be "uncompetitive". Thus the attempt to
lower costs. Sometimes companies have sufficient control of a
market that they have little or no effective competition. In that
case they are more free to raise prices, but run the risk of
product substitution if they become too expensive. Such companies
are monopolies or shared monopolies.
Higher profits lead to a better rating on Wall Street.
- The financial sector industry is now a significant part of
the economy. This sector provides financing to companies in the
form of direct lending and assistance in floating capital shares
in the company. There are specialized analysts examining every
important company looking at their expenses and income. A company
that can control costs is regarded more favorably. Examples of
this are seen almost every day in the newspapers. When a company
announces a consolidation or layoff the stock typically rises.
Just remember the prior point that it is easier to lower costs
that raise prices.
Better ratings lead to higher stock prices and/or easier and
cheaper access to capital.
- An efficiently run company will try to use other people's
money to finance its operations. This can be in the form of loans
to the company (notes, bonds, commercial paper, etc) or the sale
of capital shares. Once a company is established it is hard for
it to raise additional capital by selling new shares as this
potentially lowers the value of existing ones. Thus, new shares
are usually issued only in conjunction with an activity that will
increase the size of the company such as a merger or acquisition.
So companies are very sensitive to their "ratings". The interest
rate and other terms for a loan depend upon this. So improving
their "bottom line" has a direct effect on their ability to raise
new capital cheaply.
Wall Street's demand for higher profits comes from big
institutional investors.
- A second pressure on companies comes from the big
institutions which are the most common purchasers of large blocks
of stock and new bond offerings. Very few of these institutions
buy for their own account. Exceptions are insurance companies
which need to invest their premiums. Otherwise, the big investors
are typically investment consolidators such as retirement plans
and mutual funds.
Mutual fund holders demand as high a return as possible.
- Mutual funds and retirement plans are also in a competitive
market place. Since their source of income is from the yield on
bonds and stocks they look for the highest yields. In some cases
analysts from these companies or their agents from the financial
services area meet directly with firms that they invest in to
discuss performance and management issues. The also take seats on
the boards of directors of some companies.
Mutual and retirement fund holders are us!
- Ultimately the customers of the funds are individual
investors or the retirement funds acting on their behalf. It is
our contributions to our IRA's and 401 plans that fuels the whole
cycle of investment. One hundred years ago most stock was owned
by the wealthy as a long-term investment or was restricted to a
very small speculative investor class. The last time stock
ownership became widespread was in the 1920's and caused a
horrific "bubble".
The average fund holder has unrealistic yield expectations.
- The typical investor thinks that stocks should yield in the
10-30% growth range. Funds that "underperform" risk seeing a
quick drop in the number of investors. Several have gone out of
business in the past few years because of this effect. Similar
expectations are then pushed on to the companies purchased by the
funds.
The actual range of return over long periods of time for stock
funds in in the range of 3-4% above inflation. To see that this
is so realize that companies can only grow from two effects.
First, their market can expand, but this is ultimately limited by
the population growth (usually in the 1-2% range). An individual
sector, say cell phones, can grow rapidly when it starts out, but
eventually it tapers off and its growth is the small number of
new customers and replacements. Averaged over the whole economy
this is a small effect compared to the number of mature
industries.
Second, they can become more efficient, commonly called
"productivity growth". Over the past century or so this has
generally been in the 2% range as new equipment makes it cheaper
to produce things. If stocks could go up faster than this for a
long period of time we would be making new money out of thin air.
As we move into the "information age" it is not yet clear where
such productivity growth will come from. Thus, the pressure on
lowering labor costs by outsourcing.
So, ultimately we, the investing public are the source of the
pressure on firms to lower their costs as they chase after an
unsustainable rate of profit growth.
So our unreasonable expectations for getting rich without working
or saving is the ultimate cause for the cut-throat policies of
modern corporations. A rational personal investment policy would
put aside enough money during the working years to allow a
comfortable retirement. It is generally thought that for
retirement funds to last for a lifetime not more that an
inflation- adjusted 4% should be withdrawn each year. Combine
this with the realistic investment return shown above and it is
clear that most of us should be setting aside 10-20% of our
annual income for retirement.
In the past thirty years heavy industry was destroyed in this
country by a policy of taking short-term profits and ignoring
long-term capital investment. The most visible example being the
steel industry. This same short sighted pursuit of quick profits
has now infected the country as a whole.
A recent study has shown that the average investor holds a stock for less than
one year (11 months). With such a rapid turnover investors have little interest
in the long-term prospects of a company. The management is further pressured
toward actions that will affect short-term stock price even at the cost of
the health of the firm.
In order for this
dangerous trend to be reversed a plan has to be developed to
transition from a profit-oriented society to an
investment-oriented one. The capital must be diverted from
non-productive areas such as militarism to infrastructure
development. A key part of this planning must be a realization
that blaming the "military industrial complex" without offering a
plan on how to substitute for these economic activities during a
reorientation will not be fruitful. Criticism without offering
realistic alternatives is unproductive.
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